Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.769358 1.879868 1.996189 2.128172 2.274291 2.431705 2.614910
2025-11-23 1.602261 1.754200 1.921961 2.122452 2.357585 2.627213 2.963655
2025-11-30 1.506389 1.683675 1.886079 2.137200 2.444661 2.814711 3.303259
2025-12-07 1.411266 1.601213 1.823464 2.107078 2.466029 2.914971 3.535809
2025-12-14 1.323013 1.518503 1.751635 2.055809 2.451193 2.961595 3.695737
2025-12-21 1.262735 1.464691 1.709793 2.036286 2.471585 3.051038 3.917816
2025-12-28 1.229130 1.440902 1.702516 2.058499 2.545853 3.216185 4.262897
2026-01-04 1.184943 1.400852 1.671385 2.045908 2.569942 3.310807 4.511291
2026-01-11 1.160031 1.383660 1.668119 2.069294 2.644140 3.482074 4.898499
2026-01-18 1.128710 1.356338 1.649571 2.069684 2.684136 3.604163 5.219774
2026-01-25 1.113505 1.349133 1.656979 2.105934 2.778144 3.816628 5.725433
2026-02-01 1.072910 1.306365 1.613967 2.067422 2.756215 3.841288 5.894816
2026-02-08 1.032205 1.263042 1.569805 2.026998 2.731801 3.864843 6.076534
2026-02-15 1.005995 1.238416 1.550527 2.022011 2.762341 3.983408 6.464277
2026-02-22 0.987765 1.223813 1.544358 2.035691 2.822871 4.158795 7.000254
2026-03-01 0.957761 1.191793 1.512015 2.007762 2.813123 4.207519 7.272671
2026-03-08 0.923589 1.152866 1.468304 1.960189 2.767445 4.185986 7.382696
2026-03-15 0.900235 1.128335 1.444421 1.942060 2.769922 4.254043 7.714842
2026-03-22 0.889560 1.121226 1.445444 1.962687 2.839633 4.456966 8.421051
2026-03-29 0.870326 1.101302 1.426807 1.950996 2.851861 4.547909 8.862661
2026-04-05 0.861323 1.095666 1.429017 1.972707 2.924607 4.768851 9.717574
2026-04-12 0.847049 1.081948 1.418548 1.973069 2.958431 4.912405 10.394866
2026-04-19 0.842104 1.081557 1.428066 2.006701 3.055945 5.204949 11.634786